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pi-ratings (Home). Updated on 04/01/2016
RankTeampi-rating
1Man City1.3362
2Arsenal1.1741
3Tottenham0.9954
4Man United0.9402
5Chelsea0.8878
6Southampton0.7919
7Liverpool0.7582
8Everton0.7332
9Stoke0.6976
10West Ham0.6100
11Leicester0.4934
12Swansea0.3368
13Crystal Palace0.3021
14West Brom0.2377
15Norwich0.1440
16Newcastle0.0942
17Watford0.0409
18Sunderland0.0051
19Bournemouth-0.0115
20Aston Villa-0.2692
  

pi-ratings (Away). Updated on 04/01/2016
RankTeampi-rating
1Arsenal0.9178
2Man City0.9024
3Tottenham0.7008
4Chelsea0.6847
5Man United0.6475
6Liverpool0.4881
7Everton0.4536
8Crystal Palace0.4317
9Leicester0.4036
10Southampton0.2395
11Stoke0.2390
12Swansea0.1941
13West Ham0.0964
14West Brom0.0931
15Bournemouth-0.0047
16Watford-0.1496
17Sunderland-0.3006
18Norwich-0.4027
19Aston Villa-0.4840
20Newcastle-0.5008
  



Dear visitor no. 103752 *

Welcome to pi-football.com; a website that provides free English Premier League (EPL) match predictions in the form of {p(H), p(D), p(A)}, corresponding to 'home win', 'draw', and 'away win', since EPL season beginning August 2010.

The predictions published are now based on the pi-rating technique (see DOI, draft).  The pi-rating technique was developed in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Ph.D project entitled "Bayesian Networks for Prediction, Risk Assessment, and Decision Making in an Inefficient Association Football Gambling Market". The predictions generated during the EPL seasons 2010/11 and 2011/12 are based on the pi-football models, which are more sophisticated predictive models in comparison to the pi-rating technique, and which also served towards the completion of that Ph.D. You will find the pi-football predictions in 'Historical Predictions'. The list with the relevant publications (including DOIs and drafts available for download) can be found here.

* Counter records since 18/08/2012.

 

Latest Predictions*
DateHome TeamAway Teamp(H)%p(D)%p(A)%Odds(H)Odds(D)Odds(A)
10/05/2016West HamMan United38.9131.7429.352.573.153.41
11/05/2016NorwichWatford42.6628.8328.512.343.473.51
11/05/2016SunderlandEverton34.4529.9335.622.93.342.81
11/05/2016LiverpoolChelsea42.6128.8728.522.353.463.51
15/05/2016ArsenalAston Villa79.1112.668.231.267.9012.15
15/05/2016ChelseaLeicester38.5732.0129.422.593.123.40
15/05/2016EvertonNorwich68.3023.398.311.464.2712.03
15/05/2016Man UnitedBournemouth63.5323.1513.321.574.327.51
15/05/2016NewcastleTottenham22.7126.8250.474.403.731.98
15/05/2016SouthamptonCrystal Palace56.6128.1015.281.773.566.54
15/05/2016StokeWest Ham36.7133.4529.842.722.993.35
15/05/2016SwanseaMan City25.2826.8647.863.963.722.09
15/05/2016WatfordSunderland40.8330.1029.072.453.323.44
15/05/2016West BromLiverpool25.6826.8747.453.893.722.11
        

 

The graph on the left demonstrates the expected cumulative points for Chelsea, during the English Premier League Season 2011/12, as generated by the pi-football model v2.48, and against published market odds. The results show that the market failed to adapt quckly to new evidence in relation to the pi-football model.  

The graph below illustrates how the pi-ratings develop for Manchester City over the course of more than 20 EPL Seasons (up to match instances occurred on 28/10/2012). In particular, the graph illustrates how Manchester City's match performances steadily increased since 2008 (starting approximately at match instance 6500), but also how the team was able to further improve drastically at the start of the EPL season 2011/12 (starting approximately at match instance 7300).


 


 

pi-ratings (Overall). Updated on 04/01/2016
RankTeampi-rating
1Man City2.2385
2Arsenal2.0919
3Tottenham1.6962
4Man United1.5877
5Chelsea1.5725
6Liverpool1.2462
7Everton1.1868
8Southampton1.0314
9Stoke0.9366
10Leicester0.8970
11Crystal Palace0.7339
12West Ham0.7064
13Swansea0.5309
14West Brom0.3308
15Bournemouth-0.0162
16Watford-0.1087
17Norwich-0.2588
18Sunderland-0.2955
19Newcastle-0.4065
20Aston Villa-0.7532
  









Probability and Risk:  A blog by Prof. Norman Fenton

   
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