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pi-ratings (Home). Updated on 20/06/2016
RankTeampi-rating
1Man City1.1622
2Arsenal1.1492
3Tottenham1.0863
4Southampton0.9767
5Man United0.9409
6Chelsea0.8893
7Liverpool0.8835
8Leicester0.7936
9West Ham0.7095
10Everton0.6236
11Swansea0.3725
12Stoke0.3467
13Sunderland0.2163
14West Brom0.1693
15Newcastle0.1529
16Crystal Palace0.1067
17Bournemouth-0.0942
18Watford-0.0985
19Norwich-0.1719
20Aston Villa-0.4726
  

pi-ratings (Away). Updated on 20/06/2016
RankTeampi-rating
1Arsenal0.8994
2Man City0.8337
3Tottenham0.7596
4Leicester0.7034
5Chelsea0.6533
6Man United0.6302
7Southampton0.5979
8Liverpool0.5343
9West Ham0.3232
10Everton0.3160
11Swansea0.2989
12Stoke0.1247
13Crystal Palace0.1170
14West Brom0.0812
15Sunderland-0.0068
16Bournemouth-0.0823
17Watford-0.1926
18Newcastle-0.3534
19Norwich-0.4098
20Aston Villa-0.7145
  



Dear visitor no. 109854 *

Welcome to pi-football.com; a website that provides free English Premier League (EPL) match predictions in the form of {p(H), p(D), p(A)}, corresponding to 'home win', 'draw', and 'away win', since EPL season beginning August 2010.

The predictions published are now based on the pi-rating technique (see DOI, draft).  The pi-rating technique was developed in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Ph.D project entitled "Bayesian Networks for Prediction, Risk Assessment, and Decision Making in an Inefficient Association Football Gambling Market". The predictions generated during the EPL seasons 2010/11 and 2011/12 are based on the pi-football models, which are more sophisticated predictive models in comparison to the pi-rating technique, and which also served towards the completion of that Ph.D. You will find the pi-football predictions in 'Historical Predictions'. The list with the relevant publications (including DOIs and drafts available for download) can be found here.

* Counter records since 18/08/2012.

 

Latest Predictions*
DateHome TeamAway Teamp(H)%p(D)%p(A)%Odds(H)Odds(D)Odds(A)
19/08/2016Man UnitedSouthampton45.5230.6623.812.203.264.20
20/08/2016StokeMan City30.3232.9236.763.303.042.72
20/08/2016BurnleyLiverpool16.7324.1759.105.984.141.69
20/08/2016SwanseaHull49.0724.0026.932.044.173.71
20/08/2016TottenhamCrystal Palace62.1923.6714.151.614.237.07
20/08/2016WatfordChelsea24.3025.5750.134.123.911.99
20/08/2016West BromEverton38.6427.1434.222.593.692.92
20/08/2016LeicesterArsenal39.9327.1232.942.503.693.04
21/08/2016SunderlandMiddlesbrough48.0526.3825.572.083.793.91
21/08/2016West HamBournemouth60.3724.5615.081.664.076.63
        

 

The graph on the left demonstrates the expected cumulative points for Chelsea, during the English Premier League Season 2011/12, as generated by the pi-football model v2.48, and against published market odds. The results show that the market failed to adapt quckly to new evidence in relation to the pi-football model.  

The graph below illustrates how the pi-ratings develop for Manchester City over the course of more than 20 EPL Seasons (up to match instances occurred on 28/10/2012). In particular, the graph illustrates how Manchester City's match performances steadily increased since 2008 (starting approximately at match instance 6500), but also how the team was able to further improve drastically at the start of the EPL season 2011/12 (starting approximately at match instance 7300).


 


 

pi-ratings (Overall). Updated on 20/06/2016
RankTeampi-rating
1Arsenal1.0243
2Man City0.998
3Tottenham0.9229
4Southampton0.7873
5Man United0.7855
6Chelsea0.7713
7Leicester0.7485
8Liverpool0.7089
9West Ham0.5164
10Everton0.4698
11Swansea0.3357
12Stoke0.2357
13West Brom0.1253
14Crystal Palace0.1119
15Sunderland0.1047
16Bournemouth-0.0883
17Newcastle-0.1003
18Watford-0.1456
19Norwich-0.2908
20Aston Villa-0.5935
  









Probability and Risk:  A blog by Prof. Norman Fenton

   
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